Present Situation

14 years passed from the fights on the Nistru River. The armed conflict lasted only several months, but perhaps another 14 years are needed to give this conflict a resolution. The experts called the Transnistrian situation a "frozen conflict", i.e. an unresolved conflict that can break out at any moment.

Currently, the authorities of the Republic of Moldova are not controlling the territory beyond the Nistru River. Even though the authorities from the left bench of Nistru have not been recognized by any state in the world, the Transnistrian regime managed to survive and even to consolidate after breaking loose from the control of Moldova. So what leaded to the present situation?

The symbols of separatist region

The negotiations on the status of the Transnistria region started after the Ceasefire Agreement. The federative and confederative solutions have not been accepted by any of the parts. In the last years, Transnistria, represented by Igor Smirnov, aims to ensure its independency, while Moldova tries to reintegrate Transnistria in the political, economical and legal system from the right side of Nistru.

Since both sides have been and are in irreconcilable positions in the process of negotiations, the resolution of the conflict is a matter of outmost difficulty. Behind the arguments of Transnistria is possible to distinguish the interests of Russia’s foreign policy. The presence of the 14th Russian Army confirms the existence of Russia’s strategic interest in this region.

The last parliamentary elections in Transnistria, in December 2005, showed that there are several political groups in the Transnistrian region, but it seems that no matter how different these groups are, they agree on the fact that the only resolution of the conflict is the independency of the region. Another argument in this sense is the recent Decision of the Supreme Soviet about the abolition of a decree from 1993 that refers to the resolution of the Conflict through the creation of a confederation. The presidential elections from 2006 will be a cornerstone for the future of the separatist region and of the negotiations.

There are reasons to believe that the regime from Tiraspol has consolidated itself with help of black market operations. The control of the Transnistrian elite economical ground would lead to an acceleration of the negotiations. Moldova and Ukraine understood, after the "Orange Revolution," that together with the European Union they have to stop the illicit traffic and to make the Transnistrian authorities be more cooperative.

The introduction of the new regime of custom control could not be possible without the cooperation of Ukraine, since it is the task of the Ukrainian frontier guards and custom officers, helped by the Assistance Mission of the European Union at the Moldo-Ukrainian border, to stop the smuggling. 

The new custom-control system

On the March 3, 2006, Ukraine decided to implement the Agreement from December 30, 2005 regarding the institution of a new custom control regime at the frontier with the Republic of Moldova. The companies from Transnistria should register at the Chamber of Commerce of the Republic of Moldova in order to export their production or goods. Thus the Ukrainian frontier guards will authorize the circulation of merchandise from the Transnistrian region only if the exporters are registered at the Chamber of Commerce of the Republic of Moldova. The Moldo -Ukrainian cooperation is thus the key element of the new custom control regime.

When the team of Viktor Iushchenko came to power, the chances that Ukraine would involve more actively in the resolution of the conflict rose considerably. The extension of the format of negotiations from 5 actors (Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE) to 5+2 (European Union and the United States of America) took place in the context of the EU attempts of getting more involved in the new neighborhood. Currently the EU and the US participate as observers in the negotiations of the Conflict.

However, the Russian and Transnistrian mass media largely present the new custom control regime as an economic blockade against the separatist region. Accidentally or not, just after the introduction of the new custom control regime, Russia stopped the imports of Moldovan wines, on the pretext of finding toxic substances in the composition of wine. While the wine crisis continues, together with the Government of the Republic, the wine producers and exporters are trying to find other markets to sale Moldovan wines, including the EU.